Rotates back lower after the test.The USDJPY rallied after the CPI data (see post here). The price moved to new session highs. The 200 day MA was a key target above. The move higher got to 111.69 — a pip or so short of the MA level — and sellers leaned on the first test.
The price has moved down about 30 pips from the high to 111.37. The 50% comes in at 111.326.
What to expect?
I expect chop.
I get the stall at the 200 day MA on the first test, but I can also see the selling that took the price to the 50% of the move up from the September 2017 low (at 111.02) being enough too (see daily chart below. The low today reached 110.963). Holding that level could easily give shorts a reason to take profit and buyers to lean harder against the 111.00 level.
Right now, I would lean against the 50% intraday. Stay above bullish. Move below and we are back in the pre-data range.