US February CPI +0.2% vs +0.2% m/m expected

February consumer price index data

  • Prior was +0.5%
  • Ex food and energy +0.2% vs +0.2% expected
  • Unrounded +0.181% core


  • CPI +2.2% y/y vs +2.2% y/y exp
  • Ex food and energy +1.8% vs +1.8% exp.

Everything was in-line with estimates and there were no revisions to the prior months.


  • Avg weekly earnings +0.6% y/y vs +0.6% prior
  • Avg hourly earnings +0.4% y/y vs +0.7% prior

There were no surprises in the data but the market — evidently — was priced for something on the strong side and the dollar is under some decent pressure in the aftermath. Part of that is likely the deceleration in real average hourly earnings to just +0.4% year-over-year.

Digging deeper into the numbers, apparel was up a whopping 1.5% m/m following a 1.7% m/m rise in January. That should reverse in the months ahead, which will dampen inflation going forward.

So while the headlines may be in-line with estimates, the details are soft and that’s what’s weakening the dollar.

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