US December retail sales control group +0.3% vs +0.4% expected

Retail sales highlights

  • Prior control group +0.8% (revised up to +1.4%)
  • Advance retail sales +0.4% vs +0.5% exp
  • Prior retail sales +0.8% (revised to +0.9%)
  • Ex autos +0.4% vs +0.3% exp
  • Prior ex autos +1.0% (revised to +1.3%)
  • Ex autos and gas +0.4% vs +0.4% exp
  • Prior ex autos and gas +0.8% (revised to +1.2%)

The story here is the November revisions. The headlines were a touch softer but it’s completely wiped out when you factor in the very large upward revisions to November, especially to the control group, which was the best month since 2005.

Consumers were feeling very good heading into the holiday season and spent heavily. Expect to see upward revisions to Q4 GDP estimates and some positive notes about Q1 and beyond.

The odds of a Fed hike in March (and more beyond) have also ticked higher.

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