US CPI and retail sales coming up next

Two big data releases out at the top of the hour

Yesterday’s PPI sent a jolt through the US dollar but that report is a mere appetizer to the CPI data.

At the same time the market will be hit with retail sales. And it’s not just any retail sales report, it’s the busiest retail month of the year.

Both will be big market drivers but I lean towards retail sales as the one that will dictate the next dollar move. I believe there is a secular trend towards early Christmas shopping and that has boosted November retail sales recently but pulled down December.

The past three December retail sales numbers (control group) have all missed on the initial reading. So the US dollar could be at risk for yet-another stumble.

Watch the control group, which excludes autos, gas and building supplies. It’s forecast to rise 0.4% m/m.

For more, see the economic calendar.

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