UK Q3 GDP first reading qq 0.4% vs 0.3% exp

UK Q3 GDP first reading data now out 25 Oct

  • 0.3% prev
  • yy 1.5 % vs 1.5% exp/prev
  • index of services mm 0.2% vs 0.3% exp vs -0.1% prev
  • 3m/3m 0.4% as exp vs 0.5% prev

Also out:

  • Sept mortgage approvals 41,584 vs 41,800 exp vs 41762 prev revised from 41807

GBPUSD up to 1.3165 on the better headline. Expect sellers/res around 1.3180 then larger around 1.3200, more at 1.3220. Demand now initially at 1.3150 then 1.3100-20
Jury still out on whether the data gives the BOE the wiggle room it needs to justify a hike next week.
Says the ONS:

  • Services increased by 0.4%, the same rate as Quarter 2 (Apr to June) 2017 and remains the largest contributor to GDP growth, with a strong performance in computer programming, motor trades and retail trade.
  • Manufacturing returned to growth after a weak Quarter 2 2017, increasing by 1.0% in Quarter 3 2017
  • Construction has contracted for the second quarter in a row, although the industry still remains well above its pre-downturn peak.
  • GDP per head was estimated to have increased by 0.3% during Quarter 3 2017.

Full release here

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