Two views on tariffs: Outright global trade war or political show

David Rosenberg and Ray Dalio on US steel tariffs

Feeling confused about tariffs and the market impact? You’re not alone.

Two of the most well-known market watchers are on opposite sides of the argument. David Rosenberg from Gluskin Sheff was most famous for predicting the US housing collapse when he was the chief economist at Merrill Lynch.

Lately, he’s been very bearish and today he writes:

«My bet is that there is going to be retaliation and that an outright global trade war is going to occur.»

He also writes that NAFTA talks are going nowhere and an outright recession is coming if it falls apart. Rosenberg finishes to column with an endorsement for buying gold.

Meanwhile, Ray Dalio brushes it all off. The former Bridgewater CEO has earned billions running the world’s biggest hedge fund.

In a post on LinkedIn, he says «I wouldn’t expect it to amount to much anytime soon» and that cooler heads will prevail.

«I believe that what is happening now is more for political show than for real threatening,» he writes.

What’s different is that Dalio focuses on China, while Rosenberg looks more at NAFTA.

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