Two quick thoughts ahead of today’s US third quarter GDP report

The advance report on Q3 due at 1230 GMT

The consensus is for a reading of +2.6%, annualized with a 2.1% rise in personal consumption.


There is a positive bias in the numbers because of the strong shipments numbers in the September durable goods orders data. They were up 0.7% compared to +0.1% expected. Those numbers came out Wed and won’t be reflected in the estimate. On the flipside the trade numbers yesterday were a touch soft. On net, the bias is higher.


I see this is a freeroll for dollar longs because if it’s weak, it’s going to be blamed on the hurricanes. If it’s strong, it will be evidence that the economy is hot enough to breeze right past the storms.

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