This time tomorrow we’ll have the 1st OCR decision from a new RBNZ governor

Its goodbye to Graeme Wheeler and hello to ‘acting’ governor — Grant Spencer
I posted a couple of previews of the Reserve Bank of New Zealand  decision due Thursday morning (NZ time)

  • RBNZ meet this week, coming up Thursday (NZ time) — preview … Kiwibank preview
  • NZD traders — heads up for the RBNZ this week (preview) … BNZ preview

This now, via ANZ:

  • We expect the RBNZ to once again leave the OCR at 1.75%
  • And reinforce an ultra-neutral stance

While global growth is looking stronger, the weight of domestic developments augurs more caution; growth is barely at trend. Economic developments, election proximity, and RBNZ leadership changes all mean this decision will be somewhat of a ‘non-event’. Our bias is still that the OCR will be lifted late next year. Potential shifts in fiscal policy and a lower NZD (when the liquidity cycle turns) are major factors nudging us towards the OCR moving up. However, it is hardly a strongly held view, with the risks skewed towards an even longer policy siesta. There is simply not sufficient excess demand to drive inflation.

  • Announcement due 27 September at 2000GMT (Thursday local NZ time)
  • OCR is currently 1.75% and there is no change expected (pretty much a unanimous no change expectation)

(OCR is Official Cash Rate)

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