S&P 500 May Set Fresh Lows

US 500: Retail trader data shows 43.6% of traders are net-long with the ratio of traders short to long at 1.29 to 1. In fact, traders have remained net-short since Feb 13 when US 500 traded near 2653.21; price has moved 3.6% higher since then. The number of traders net-long is 11.3% higher than yesterday and 17.8% higher from last week, while the number of traders net-short is 1.0% higher than yesterday and 1.3% lower from last week.

We typically take a contrarian view to crowd sentiment, and the fact traders are net-short suggests US 500 prices may continue to rise. Yet traders are less net-short than yesterday and compared with last week. Recent changes in sentiment warn that the current US 500 price trend may soon reverse lower despite the fact traders remain net-short.

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