New Zealand July — September jobs report — The two ‘headline’ results from the report are the unemployment rate and employment change
Unemployment rate: 4.6% … BEAT
- expected 4.7%, prior was 4.8%
Employment change q/q: 2.2% … huge beat
- expected 0.8%, prior was -0.2%
Employment change y/y: 4.2% … huge beat
- expected 2.5%, prior was 3.1%
NZD jumping on the great results
But wait, there is more …
Participation rate: 71.1% … unemployment rate drop and a big surge in this — nice!
- expected 70.2%, prior was 70.0%
Average hourly earnings: +1.2% … beat
- expected 1.1%, prior was 0.8%
Private wages including overtime: 0.7% … beat
- expected 0.6%, prior was 0.4%
Private wages excluding overtime: +0.7%% … in line
- expected 0.7%, prior was 0.4%
- While two of the wage measures have beaten, wage growth is still slow.
- Note that u/e is now at an 8 year low
- Underutilisation rate unchanged q/q, and down y/y (11.8%, down from 12.3 percent a year ago) … an improvement but work to be done here
- highest labour force participation rate on record
- Labour cost index (LCI) +1.9% y/y (from +1.7% y/y in the previous report — for Q2), this is the largest y/y increase since the September 2012 quarter
—ps. while eco data is important, much of the recent movement in the NZD has been driven by politics — the change of government. NZD jumping on this report though!-Note also the new government is going to add an employment mandate to the RBNZ Act … but on the basis of recent jobs growth in NZ this would seem not necessary. What could possibly go wrong?