Morgan Stanley says USD momentum has eased, now think the DXY is topping out

From the latest ‘FX Pulse’ from the bank — in brief highlights:

  • The momentum for the USD has eased and we now think the DXY is topping out
  • We are buyers of EUR crosses like EURCHF and EURCAD
  • The «canary» currencies like NZD, AUD, and CAD should see the bulk of their weakness next year
  • we think EM currencies are in a position to recover
  • Barring some specific exceptions, the driving force of the EM sell-off was the USD, which has We believe ZAR is the best candidate to position for a rebound
  • GBP remains on our currencies to sell
  • If USDJPY crosses above 114.50, then we should see more upside momentum
  • Looking for short AUDKRW entry point

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