Up from 3X previously.JP Morgan liked October payroll so much that they now expect the Fed to raise rates 4 times in 2018. That is up from 3 times previously.
That — given the 0.25% hike penciled in for December — would take the target Fed funds range to 2.25% -2.5%.
The 2 year note is at 1.6205%. The 10 year yield is at 2.3397%. Does that make sense?
Of course the German 10 year is 0.364%, so for debt managers, 2.339% is > 0.364% (not accounting for the currency risk if position is unhedged). If the Fed does lead to higher yields, does it lead to higher European rates?
Anyway, it is only one banks opinion for now….