Japan inflation data — National CPI for August: 0.7% y/y (expected 0.6%)

That ‘national’ CPI in the headline is the, well, ‘headline’ … but it’s the core that’s the BOJ and market focus, more below:National CPI y/y for August, 0.6% IN LINE

  • expected 0.6%, prior 0.4%

National CPI y/y excluding Fresh Food 0.7% IN LINE

  • expected 0.7%, prior 0.5%
  • 8th consecutive month of positive

(This is the closest the US ‘core’ measure) National CPI excluding Food, Energy 0.2% y/y IN LINE

  • expected 0.2%, prior was 0.1%

Tokyo CPI for September  (Tokyo CPI data is available a month earlier than the National CPI) 0.5% y/y MISS

  • expected 0.6%, prior 0.5%

Tokyo CPI excluding Fresh Food 0.5% y/y IN LINE

  • expected 0.5%, prior was 0.4%

Tokyo CPI excluding Food, Energy 0.0% y/y MISS

  • expected 0.1%, prior 0.0%

It’s the ‘core’ (0.2% for September, national) that is the most focus for the market and Bank of Japan. Still way below target. And the outlook for inflation in coming months is for lower (see preview for more on this). Slow price and wage growth has resulted in the BOJ pushing back its timing for reaching its 2% inflation target six times since its huge QQE stimulus programme in 2013

  • The BOJ now expecting inflation to hit 2% in the fiscal year ending March 2020


As expected on a Japanese data release … yen doing very little indeed. Updates:

At the same time we got other data from Japan, post here: Japan: Overall Household Spending (August): 0.6% y/y (plus jobs data)

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