Goldman Sachs sees «good chance» Trump leaves NAFTA, but not in near term

NAFTA negotiations ongoing

Trade is at the top of the agenda and aside from the steel and aluminum tariffs dispute, the focus is on two decisions: 1) China IP, and 2) NAFTA.

Here’s the latest from Goldman Sachs:

«The potential announcement of steel tariffs could alleviate political pressure on the White House to pursue other trade restrictions in the near-term, but they also suggest to us a rising probability of trade-restrictive outcomes to other pending issues. The two most important remaining trade-related decisions awaiting the Administration are the ongoing NAFTA negotiations — talks are currently underway in Mexico City — and pending Section 301 investigation into China’s practices regarding intellectual property and technology transfer. On the former, we believe the most likely outcome in the near-term is the announcement of a few small agreements on technical trade issues, but we continued to expect negotiations to stall on major issues like rules of origin and government procurement. There is a good chance that this could eventually lead the President to announce he intends to withdraw from NAFTA, but such an announcement does not appear likely in the near term, in our view. By contrast, we expect that the Administration will ultimately announce restrictions on investment by Chinese companies in the US, and possibly broader trade restrictions, in response to its ongoing Section 201 investigation. The deadline for that decision is not until August however, and it is not clear when an announcement in this area will be made.»

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