From RBC’s monthly Commodity Strategy Research piece, in brief on their gold outlook(bolding mine for emphasis)
- While North Korean worries seem to be on the back burner as far as gold prices are concerned, more recently the headlines around Spain and Catalonia drove some upside. Yet for the balance of the year, outside of geopolitical risks (i.e., North Korea), the rollercoaster of the US political landscape and legislative action, etc., gold’s fortunes will remain largely tied to the Fed (both the path of rate hikes and intertwined speculation about the next Fed chair).
- given the ongoing prospect of a rate hike in the US in December (greater than 80% probability priced in now), we think that gold will remain in «trickle down» mode, as gold-negative macro headwinds continue to drive gold prices for the balance of 2017, with the obvious possible caveat of unexpected geopolitical risks coming to the fore
Price forecasts (these are RBC’s average price for each quarter)