ForexLive Asia FX news wrap: German and NZ elections — Japan next?

Forex news for Asia trading Monday 25 September, 2017

  • Japanese PM Abe to hold a news conference at 0900 GMT
  • Australia press: Government set to pull the trigger on limiting gas exports within days
  • Japan headline crossing wires again — PM Abe wants a 2tln yen stimulus package
  • PBOC sets USD/CNY central rate at 6.5495 (vs. Friday at 6.5861)
  • Fitch says some China LGFV defaults likely (timing uncertain)
  • Option expiries Monday 25 September 2017
  • (Not FX) — Here are President Trump’s new travel bans
  • Japan data — Nikkei Manufacturing PMI for September (preliminary): 52.6 (prior 52.2)
  • London mayor says 7 terrorist plots foiled since March
  • Republican tax proposal leaks and it’s just what you would expect
  • The best FX trade last week had a commodity-currency flair
  • After 8 weeks below the 100 and 200 week MAs, the USDJPY closes back above it
  • Latest MS EUR/USD order (limit buy, target & stop)
  • Is it time for the EURUSD to get out of the up and down range? I think so.

Early movement here in Asia today with German and New Zealand weekend elections in the driving seat. The results were not too far from expectations.

Merkel’s party in Germany did not perform as well as was expected, but she is expected to manage to form government in coalition.

For NZ, the result was more or less as expected. Incumbent Bill English achieved the highest proportion of votes, well ahead of the main opposition, but not enough to form majority government — talks to form a coalition will progress over the coming days and weeks. Opposition leader Ardern has not conceded defeat and is in the running to form a coalition government also. More in the election posts from earlier today:

  • New Zealand election outcome uncertainty — the two key dates to watch
  • German election: «German vote could doom Merkel-Macron deal on Europe»
  • German and NZ election result updates (EUR and NZD updates too)
  • Monday morning 25 September 2017, Forex prices — early indications
  • New Zealand — Fonterra maintains its 2017/18 milk price forecast
  • German election — Opposition leader Schultz harder line on Brexit
  • New Zealand election update
  • EUR, NZD both a touch lower after weekend elections
  • More on the NZ election: «markets never like uncertainty»

Early currency moves for (most notably but not exculsively) for the EUR and NZD. Both slid in very early movement. NZD/USD managed to pretty much retrace and fill its ‘gap’ but has since fallen back to (and a little under) early lows. Something for everyone in these movements! EUR/USD has spent much of the session today edging back higher to try to fill its ‘gap’ also.

AUD/USD, too, has traded up from early lows, back to circa 0.7970 and its around 0.7960 (just under) as I update.

Cable, too — soft early and then edging up to retrace. Its near its (small) range high for the session as I post.

Gold is weaker on the day to open the week.

Stay tuned today for Japanese Prime Minister Abe holding a news conference at 0900GMT — he is expected to announce an early election. USD/JPY has spent Monday higher than it was Friday in the US. it got as high as around 112.50 where exporter sales have been the chatter as a factor limiting it to around there for now. Its back under 112.30 as I post.

Over the weekend there was plenty of posturing around North Korean developments: North Korea weekend update (two bogans get drunk, bump chests outside pub) 

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