It is key level this week with the BOC ahead.The Bank of Canada meets this week (decision on Wednesday at 10 AM ET). There is a 17% probability of a hike. That goes up to 42% in December. Friday, there was a blow to the hike idea when the retail sales and CPI came out weaker than expectations.
So the price shot up and today we are seeing another more higher. That move has pushed the price to the 100 day MA at 1.26642 level. The swing high from August 31 is also in the area at 1.26625. The high price today reached 1.26592 (see daily chart above).
Is that enough?
Needless to say, the BOC decision and statement/comments from Poloz will be dissected for what may or may not happen in December. If the door remains open, stalling at the 100 day MA will make sense. If the door is shut, a spike through the level can be expected.
So risk is both ways?
Absolutely. Remember the BOC surprised the market in September (it was about a 40% chance). They did back-to-back hikes in July and September. The odds do not favor a hike now but December can go either way. Even a delay until 2018 would likely be more bearish for the CAD (higher USDCAD). As a result, the nuances of the words on Wednesday will swing the market.
How can you trade it now?
Traders can lean against the 100 day MA and if the price stays below (i.e., attracts sellers) look to buy a dip. Looking at the hourly chart the 1.2587 level is the 38.2% of the move up from Friday’s lows. It is also near the swing high from October 17th (see hourly chart below). That would be a key target, if the lid can remain on the pair now.
Can you buy here?
I would be more inclined to buy on a break above the 100 day MA (from a square position). The 100 day MA is just a big technical level and with the swing high from August 31 at the same level, it makes sense to delay.
Now if long from below and you still like the upside, you have some profit to be patient for a break but understand the area should be a tough nut to crack regardless.
A BOC will have a big meeting and statement on Wednesday. The news will not be what they do but what they say about the future path of rates. That is a big risk event and the price can gap higher or lower.
Until then, traders can use technical levels to trade the market. The 100 day MA and old swing high at the 1.2662-64 is a key level that has, and should be, a tough nut to crack. If it holds, there could be a rotation lower. The best support comes in at 1.2587.
Come rate decision time, risks are increased and the headlines from the decision and subsequent press conference will lay the pipe for the next move in the pair.