Forex technical analysis: USDCAD back down testing lows

Held 100 bar MA on the 4-hour chart.The USDCAD fell to the lowest level since October 25 in the London morning session. The low came in at 1.2687.  The price then rallied back higher but stalled right ahead of the 100 bar moving average on the four hour chart 1.2730. That level also converged with the 38.2% of the move up from the October 11 low (at the same level).  Crowds gathered and put a stop to the rally and the price has moved back lower. 

We trade back near the low for the day but so far cannot push below.   However, I still give the nod to the shorts on the holding from above.   If the low is taken out, there is some better support below in the 1.26705-74 area. A lower trend line (see red circled numbers) and the 50% retracement cut across at those levels.  I would expect good buyers to lean against both levels on a test. 
That level will be a key test for the bulls/bears. Stay above and all is ok with the longer term trend.
Looking at the longer term daily chart below, the price has been trending higher since bottoming in September. The rally stalled just below the 50% of the 2017 trading range (see daily chart below). 
The corrective move lower over the last few weeks of trading is getting close to the 50% /trend line support area. 
A move below that area would tip the scales more to the downside/bearish. Holding and bouncing, and the move lower is just a retracement to a midpoint support level.   If the selling continues 1.26705 area will be key. 

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