Trades above 200 hour MA.Taking a look at the price action this week in the EURUSD, the price bottomed on Monday at 1.22685 and moved to a high on Wednesday (midday) at 1.2443. That high was surpassed by a pip or so, on Thursday before heading lower.
Today, the lap up and back down was nearly completed when the price moved to with 5 pips of Monday’s swing low (low reached 1.2272). It has been a very symmetrical up. and then back down week.
Within the range (on the hourly chart above) sit the 100 hour MA at 1.23653 (blue line), and the 200 hour MA (green line) at 1.23089.
The price moved below the 100 hour MA yesterday and tumbled lower. The 200 hour MA has seen the price trade above and below the MA into the US jobs data. The last few hours has seen the price move above the 200 hour MA (at 1.23089 currently)
So we sit above the 200 hour MA at 1.23089, but below the 100 hour MA at 1.2365. They each define the trading bias.
The market may take the technical clue from moving back above the 200 hour MA, and run back up toward the 50% and 100 hour MA area (yellow area). However, if tested, I would expect sellers to lean against that area, and keep a lid there.
If the 200 hour MA IS re-broken to the downside (and we are closer to it), the sellers/bears will stake their claim to the bias trophy. I would expect a continuation lower. However, we do need that MA thelevel broken.
This week Draghi/ECB pivoted a little more toward the hawkish side, but he was still able to get the EURUSD off the highs (read Adam’s post here). Draghi cites the currency rate as a risk to the recovery. The EURUSD is trading near the highest level since the end of 2014, but so far so good.
In the US, there is a lot of balls in the air, but the economy is doing well (no denying). The US jobs data was strong, but wage gains are still lagging.
A trade war is still a big concern. However, the agenda from Trump is a bee-line focus on jobs and balancing trade. This whole chapter is just being explored. The US is out of TPP. NAFTA is up in the air. China is a really big issue.
How that stuff plays out in the EURUSD pair is open for the story interpretation.
When that happens, watch the clues from the technicals.
If there is a clear winner, the price action will start to show it. It will trend.
If the tide goes in and out, the technicals will also help tell that story. Look for the breaks. Then look for the targets in the direction of the break for confirmation. If targets can not be reached or the breaks fail, look for the rebound the other way.