ECB tapering priced in? — BNP Paribas

The ECB decision on Thursday is a highlight next week

BNP Paribas FX Strategy Research discusses the EUR outlook going into next week’s ECB meeting

The ECB takes center stage next week with its scheduled meeting on Thursday when it is widely expected to announce plans for asset purchases beyond December.

Our economists forecast a commitment to purchase EUR 30bn per month (down from EUR 60bn) for a period of six months. With recent reports suggesting that a 9-month extension was under discussion, a result in line with our expectation might be viewed as marginally hawkish.

However, we see limited scope for the EUR to benefit from the announcement given the extent to which tapering of purchases has already been priced in. 

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