Ups and downsWhip it. Whip it good…
The markets are all over the place as the markets (forex, stock, debt) digest the tax plan, the chances of the tax plan, the good and the bad. Needless to say, the spin doctors will be out with one side saying this will get growth to 4%, and then there will be the other side who will say that there is no chance as it favors the rich/corporations.
With tax reform, it is impossible to please everyone and that will be the rub.
The price action is whipping back and forth. Here is a quick review.
The EURUSD moved back above the
- swing low from August at 1.1661 and the
- October 6 swing low at 1.1668.
- The 200 week MA at 1.1669 and also
- back above broken neckline from the head and shoulder.
What did not get rebroken (fail) was the:
- 200 hour MA at 1.16883 (the high stalled at 1.1687)
- 100 day MA at 1.16968.
We are now back trading at 1.1661 and trying to press that last level now. Whip it. Whip it good.
The 100 and 200 hour MA held support earlier in the day. A topside trend line stalled the rally.
The dollar moved sharply lower and the price rotated back down and through the 200 and 100 hour MAs at 113.739 adn 113.693 respectively. The price also fell below the 50% retracement, of the week’s trading range at 113.612. The low extended to 113.53.. That was the bearish run. However, the momentum did not last….
The prices since rebounded back above the aforementioned moving average levels (down to 113.69), turning the bias a more positive/bullish again. The moving averages are now support… again. The topside trend line is now resistance (at 114.20 now). We trade between the extremes (which is probably right now).
Whip it. Whip it good
The GBPUSD did a lot of selling from the BOE. The low tested the key 100 day MA at 1.3077 (low reached 1.3083) and bounced. The dollar selling took, dragged the price higher and above an area that has had a number of swing levels at 1.31095-197. The price is back below that area (see red numbered circles). That area may be close resistance again. Let’s say, if really bearish GBPUSD, staying below that level would better for shorts (and the market bias). The 100 day MA (and that lower trend line — blue numbered circles) will be eyed…
Not much of a whip but the downside momentum has been slowed.
There is going to be a lot of noise and debate and tweets, and perhaps twitter fights.
There will be one side focusing on the good (it should be great for corporations), others focused on the bad (does it hurt the middle class and benefit corporations and the rich).
What about the state and local tax deduction? How will that sit with the NY, CA, CT, NJ and other high tax states.
What about the tax credits being taken away.
For trading, hopefully the market settles into a rhythm. Levels are discovered and traded, but be aware, with this process, there is the chance for lots of comments and ebbs and flows. So be patient. Wait for levels and if wrong, get out. If right, hopefully you make more than the risk you are taking.