CBA on the data due from Australia today (CBA nails it here)

Due at 0130GMT, Private Sector Credit for August

  • expected 0.5% m/m, prior 0.5%
  • expected 5.5% y/y, prior 5.3%

Here is what CBA say:

  • Today, AUD will largely ignore the release of Australia’s August private sector credit report (11:30am Sydney). Instead, AUD/USD will continue to be guided by the performance of iron ore prices and the USD

Tee hee …. yep.
Lest the private sector credit data is feeling a little sad by this attitude, let me add …. Yes, it is relevant data — its good info, especially when looking at housing credit growth/not growth and business credit growth/not growth …. its just not going to have too much of an immediate impact on AUD FX rates, that’s all.
Here is Westpac’s preview:
Private credit is expected to expand by 0.4% in August to be 5.4% higher than a year ago. This follows a 0.46% gain in July and a 0.4% monthly average for the year to date. This reflects the balance of two countervailing forces at present:

  • Housing credit is expected to increase by 0.5%, 6.5%yr. There is an emerging gradual slowing after a tightening of lending conditions. The 3 month annualised pace eases to 6.0%, down from 6.8% in March. Notably, the total value of housing finance grew by 15% in the year to January, but has stalled since
  • Business credit has emerged from a soft spot to record robust growth of late. We expect a gain of around 0.4%, bringing the 6 month annualised pace to 5.3%, while annual growth will be around 4.5%. Commercial finance has rebounded since February, up a trend 15%, and business investment has turned around from declines to modest gains

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