Barclays’ oil outlook — say that scope for price upside is limited this year & next

The Barclays Oil market outlook is detailed, but I’ve summarisedThey headline the report with «Scope for price upside limited this year and next»

  • Saying, «Inventory drawdown to continue based on our balances, but the market will be come increasingly focused on 2018».


  • «OECD inventory data show physical markets gradually rebalancing»

The bank notes strengthening macroeconomic backdrop:

  • Well-synchronized global economic recovery across all regions
  • Solid outlook for global growth
  • Global growth being driven by developed economies and EM is catching up

But Chinese economic slowdown to pressure commodities

  • Credit impulse signaling slowdown that will likely impact ‘old economy’, this is already evident by the recent plunge in base metals prices
  • And as electricity output flatlines, commodity appetite to decline as well

—There is more (it’s a long piece), but note — no price outlook in the report.

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