Australia Q4 GDP due 7 March — preview taking into account the poor data

This is partially a response to the Australian Q4 data today and partially a preview of Wednesday’s economic growth data for the final quarter of 2017Its via Westpac, first on today’s data (in brief, bolding mine):

Q4,net exports 

  • a sizeable drag
  • subtracting a hefty 0.5ppts from activity
  • Exports stumbled in the final quarter of 2017
  • Exports are expected to perform better in 2018
  • Imports increased by 0.5% in the quarter and by 6.6% over the year to meet rising demand.


  • expanding at an above trend pace
  • upswing in investment underway
  • Q4 public demand surprised to the high side

And, for Westpac’s GDP preview:

Forecast for Q4 GDP growth rounded down to 0.4% q/q, 2.4% y/y

  • incorporates the downside surprises on
    inventories and profits

employment and hours worked were robust in the final
quarter of 2017 the decline in exports has taken the gloss off growth.

  • domestic demand +0.8%
  • inventories +0.1ppts
  • net exports -0.5ppts

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