Australia data preview — Q4 net exports due Tuesday (GDP data input)

Export data due from Australia for the October — December quarter coming up on Tuesday 5 March 2018   

  • Due at 0030 GMT

Says National Australia Bank:

  • net exports is expected to be a sizeable drag on GDP
  • NAB expects a 0.8% growth drag
  • Exports were weighed down in the December quarter by declines in rural exports, and disappointing outcomes for iron ore and metals volumes. Imports, in contrast, were strong (particularly consumption and intermediate goods), consistent with more upbeat domestic demand and higher consumer spending volumes.

—More, this time via Westpac:

  • Net exports, as with inventories, were volatile in 2017, in part due to weather disruptions during the first half of the year. In Q3, net exports were neutral for activity, with both import and export volumes expanding by 1.9%. 
  • For Q4, net exports were a major headwind, subtracting an estimated 0.6ppts from activity.
  • Imports rose an estimated 0.6% in Q4 to meet rising domestic demand.
  • Exports stumbled, contracting by an estimated 2%, to be only 1.5% above the level of a year ago. Cereal shipments retreated from historic highs associated with the earlier bumper harvest, while coal exports fell in part due to temporary disruptions, including strike action.

(bolding above is mine … this component of GDP is looking very sad indeed)

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