Weekly Technical Perspective on USD/CHF, AUD/USD and AUD/JPY

Notes: Aussie has been trading within the confines of these ascending parallels extending off the 2016 low with the recent decline taking prices into confluence support here around 7735/50- a region defined by the 52-week moving average and the 2017 March high. Key support and bullish invalidation rests lower at 7636/37 where the 38.2% & 61.8% retracements converges on slope support (area of interest for possible exhaustion / long-entries IF reached). Weekly resistance remains steady at 8125/68 with a breach / close above this region needed to mark resumption of the broader uptrend.

Bottom line: The immediate focus is on this support confluence- I’ll be looking for a possible exhaustion low early this week OR on a move into 7630s. Look for a rally through the 200-week moving average / yearly open at 7800 to alleviate further downside pressure near-term.

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AUD/JPY Weekly Price Chart

Notes: AUD/JPY broke below confluence support at 84.25 last month with the decline now testing a critical inflection zone to start the week at 81.58. The decline has held within the confines of a descending pitchfork formation extending off the 2017 highs with the sell-off now testing those yearly lows. Initial resistance stands with the median-line (currently ~83.20s) backed by 84.25 with bearish invalidation now eyed at the upper 50-line / 52-week moving average at ~85.80s.

Bottom line: AUD/JPY is testing support into the weekly open and IF price is going to rebound, this would be a good spot. That said, a break below this critical threshold would keep the near-term focus lower targeting the lower 50-line (currently ~80.50s) backed by the 1.618% extension of the decline off last year’s high at 79.45. From a trading standpoint, the immediate short-bias is at risk while above this support barrier with a rebound ultimately to offer more favorable short-entries.

Previous Weekly Technical Perspectives

  • Weekly Technical Perspective on USD/CAD, USD/JPY and GBP/CAD
  • Weekly Technical Perspective on DXY, USD/JPY, AUD/NZD and U.S. Bonds
  • Weekly Technical Perspective on AUD/USD, USD/CAD, AUD/NZD and Bitcoin

— Written by Michael Boutros, Technical Currency Strategist with DailyFX

To receive Michael’s analysis directly, please sign-up to his email distribution list Follow Michael on Twitter @MBForex or contact him at mboutros@dailyfx.com

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

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