Weekly Technical Perspective on EUR/USD, U.S. Bonds and Crude Oil

Notes: Yields on the 10-year are breaking through a critical resistance range we’ve been tracking for months at 3.00/04- a region defined by the 2013 high-day close / swing high and up-slope resistance. The breach validates the breakout of the multi-decade downtrend and keeps the focus higher while above this threshold. Subsequent topside objectives are eyed at 3.22 with a more significant confluence region seen at 3.32/35. Key support and bullish invalidation now raised to 2.83.

Bottom line: Don’t fight this- price has cleared big resistance with momentum still deep in overbought territory and this thing could stretch. We’ll be on the lookout for possible exhaustion on a stretch into the aforementioned resistance targets if reached.

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Crude Oil Weekly Chart

Notes: Crude oil prices are is testing a break of BIG resistance this week at 70.42-71.32 where the 100% extension of the 2016 advance and the 50% retracement of the 2011 decline converge on the median-line. This is either a false break, or things are about to get really interesting! It’s worth noting that we’ve been tracking a price analog with the 2009 advance which suggests that crude may be vulnerable for a rather sharp pullback here from a timing standpoint.

Bottom line: Again here the weekly close will be important- Interim support rests at 66.18 with broader bullish invalidation now raised to 59.94-60.18. A close above this key pivot (70.42-71.32) is needed to keep the immediate advance viable with such a scenario targeting the 2011 & 2012 lows at 74.94 and 77.26 respectively. From a trading standpoint, there’s nothing to do here yet if you’re not already long and it might be a good spot to start tightening up protective stops.

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Previous Weekly Technical Perspectives

  • A Weekly Technical Perspective on GBP/USD, AUD/USD and U.S. Bonds
  • Weekly Technical Perspective on NZD/USD, GBP/USD and EUR/NZD
  • Weekly Technical Perspective on EUR/USD, AUD/USD and GBP/JPY

— Written by Michael Boutros, Technical Currency Strategist with DailyFX

Follow Michael on Twitter @MBForex or contact him at mboutros@dailyfx.com

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

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