1240/46. This region is defined by the 61.8% ext of the decline off the yearly high, the 50% retracement of the December rally and the 52-week moving average. Note that basic slope support also converges on this region this month and further highlights the technical significance of this threshold heading into November trade. Critical resistance heading into the yearly close remains at 1380/91.
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Prices have continued to hold above the October opening-range lows with near-term support still seen at 1263 (backed closely by the 200-day moving average at 1261). The focus heading into the start of next week will be on this key support range and while prices may have yet to make a low, I’ll be looking for signs of exhaustion on a move lower. A break below this threshold would shift the focus towards confluence support down at 1240 (bullish invalidation).
Yet another adjustment to our near-term slope continues to highlight interim resistance at 1278/79. A breach above this region would be needed to alleviate further downside pressure with such a scenario targeting resistance objectives at 1290 and 1306/09 (breakout territory). A break below 1263 still has to contend with the slope confluence at ~1253 backed by 1246 & 1240- area of interest for exhaustion / long-entries IF reached.
Bottom line: heading into November trade I’ll be looking for an exhaustion low, preferably early in the month, with a breach above this near-term descending slope needed to get thing going on the long-side.
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—Written by Michael Boutros, Currency Strategist with DailyFX
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DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.