Lackluster U.S. Retail Sales Report to Fuel EUR/USD Rebound

Period

Data Released

Estimate

Actual

Pips Change

(1 Hour post event )

Pips Change

(End of Day post event)

MAR

2018

04/16/2018 12:30:00 GMT

0.4%

0.6%

+30

+19

March 2018 U.S. Retail Sales

EUR/USD 5-Minute Chart

Retail spending climbed 0.6% in March following a 0.1% contraction the month prior, while the core measure for retail sales, which excludes auto and gas, increased another 0.3% during the same period amid forecasts for a 0.4% print. A deeper look at the report showed demand for motor vehicle, parts increasing 2.0% to lead the advance, with spending on health/personal care increasing 1.4%, while discretionary spending on clothing slipped 0.8% after rising a marginal 0.2% in February.

The greenback struggled to hold its ground following the mixed details, with EUR/USD advancing from the 1.2360 region to end the day at 1.2379. Review the DailyFX Advanced Guide for Trading the News to learn our 8 step strategy.

EUR/USD Daily Chart

  • Keep in mind, failure to preserve the range from earlier this year dampens the broader outlook for EUR/USD especially as the Relative Strength Index (RSI) extends the bearish formation from earlier this year; need to keep a close eye on the oscillator as it snaps back from oversold territory and works its way towards trendline resistance.
  • Lack of momentum to break/close below the 1.1790 (23.6% retracement) to 1.1810 (61.8% retracement) area raises the risk for a move back towards 1.2060 (50% retracement), with the next area of interest coming in around 1.2140 (50% retracement) to 1.2170 (61.8% retracement).

For more in-depth analysis, check out the Q2 Forecast for EUR/USD

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— Written by David Song, Currency Analyst

To contact David, e-mail dsong@dailyfx.com. Follow me on Twitter at @DavidJSong.

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DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

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