AUD/USD Vulnerable to Dovish Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) Comments


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02/06/2018 00:30:00 GMT





February 2018 Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) Interest Rate Decision

AUD/USD 5-Minute Chart

The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) left the cash rate unchanged at its first meeting for 2018, and it seems as though the central bank will preserve the record-low rate throughout the foreseeable future as ‘the low level of interest rates is continuing to support the Australian economy.’ The remarks suggest Governor Philip Lowe and Co. are in no rush to implement higher borrowing-costs as ‘household incomes are growing slowly and debt levels are high,’ and the central bank may continue to promote a wait-and-see approach for monetary policy as ‘inflation is likely to remain low for some time.’

The cautious remarks dragged on the Australian dollar, with AUD/USD dipping below the 0.7850 region, but the reaction was short-lived as the pair ended the day at 0.7905. Want More Insight? Sign up and join DailyFX Currency Strategist Ilya Spivak LIVE to cover the RBA rate decision.

AUD/USD Daily Chart

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  • Near-term outlook for AUD/USD is clouded with mixed signals as the pair snaps the bullish sequence from the previous week, while the Relative Strength Index (RSI) struggles to push into oversold territory and comes up against trendline resistance.
  • May see a bullish RSI trigger emerge as the near-term decline in AUD/USD appears to be stalling around the 0.7720 (23.6% retracement) to 0.7770 (61.8% expansion) region, with the first topside hurdle coming in around 0.7850 (38.2% retracement) to 0.7860 (61.8% expansion).
  • Next region of interest comes in around 0.7930 (50% retracement) to 0.7940 (61.8% retracement) followed by 0.8030 (38.2% expansion).

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— Written by David Song, Currency Analyst

To contact David, e-mail Follow me on Twitter at @DavidJSong.

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