What in Europe can be optimistic?


On Thursday, the euro did not demonstrate a clear target to correct the fall from May 14 (or even from April 17), but the spring in this direction is shrinking even more. Evenings were the last opportunity for an early conclusion of the NAFTA trade agreement. But due to the unresolved contradictions on a large number of issues, this agreement can developed in an uncertain future and if there is no agreement before the end of May, which is most likely, the Congress will not have time to ratify it this year.

Italy’s trade balance for March came out better than the forecast of 4.53 billion euros against 3.74 billion and 3.10 billion in February. In the United States, the number of applications for unemployment benefits amounted to 222 thousand for the week, compared to 211 thousand. The index of leading economic indicators (CB Leading Index) in April showed expectations of 0.4%. The business activity index in the manufacturing sector of Philadelphia for the current month increased from 23.2 to 34.4 against the forecast of decline to 21.1.

Today, there are no economic data on the US while there will be interesting indicators for the euro area. The euro zone’s trade balance for March is projected to decrease from 21.0 billion euros to 20.7 billion, but taking into account yesterday’s good trade balance of Italy, we expect the figure to be better than the forecast. The euro zone’s balance of payments is predicted to be no worse than the previous month at 35.1 billion. Also, investors are waiting for the early conclusion of a coalition agreement by the Italian parliamentary parties.

We are expecting the euro in the range 1.1890-1.1915.

* The presented market analysis is informative and does not constitute a guide to the transaction.

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