The currency market drifts to the side. It is very little volatility on the commodity market. In the stock market, the sentiment was undermined by news about the new source of the US trade dispute with China. Together, this information had little impact on FX volatility, although WSJ reports somewhat weakened the risk appetite. USD/JPY goes back under 107, AUD/USD and NZD/USD show the pressure from the sellers.
On Tuesday 17th of April, the event calendar is light in important data releases, but the market participants should keep an eye on Claimant Count Change data from UK and Building Permits data from the US.
EUR/USD analysis for 17/04/2018:
The overnight event was data pack release from China, which, however, did not translate into a revival of trade. GDP in the first quarter in line with expectations increased by 6.8 percent; Retail sales for March were stronger at 10.1% vs 9.7%, and industrial production increased by only 6.0% against a 6.3% forecast. In general, the data show that the growth rate is stable without signs of a negative impact of the trade war with the US.
The US financial media reports that the US administration is preparing a new trade lawsuit against China on unfair restrictions when exchanging high technology services, however, the administration has not yet decided whether the lawsuit will be launched.
Let’s now take a look at the EUR/USD technical picture in the H4 time frame. After the 61%, Fibo retracement was broken, the market has made a new local high at the level of 1.2397 and this morning the level is being tested again. Any breakout higher will open the road towards the golden trend line resistance around the level of 1.2435, but the key technical resistance is seen at the level of 1.2446. The momentum indicator is bouncing back up towards the north, so the bullish vies is still being supported.