Trading plan for 12/07/2018

Anxieties related to trade wars are still present and investors are waiting for China’s official reply to the announcement of next tariffs from the US, but so far we do not receive new information and the markets used this to calm down. The risk-off mode, which mainly rewards the USD, was switched off for a moment. This gave the opportunity for correction.

AUD/USD bounced from 0.7360 to 0.07380; SEK, NOK, CAD and NZD also moderate. EUR/USD drifts over 1.1670. USD/JPY, after the technical breakout on Wednesday, stays strong on 6-month highs over 112.20.

The stock market uses the moment of silencing concerns about a trade conflict. Shanghai Composite strongly bounce 2.1% and erases Wednesday’s drops. The Japanese Nikkei 225 is growing 1.3%.

On Thursday the 12th of July, the event calendar is busy in important data releases and the event of the day is ECB Meeting Minutes release. Moreover, the global investor will get familiar with Eurozone Industrial Production data, Canadian New Housing Price Index, data, US Consumer Price Index data and Unemployment Claims.

Crude Oil analysis for 12/07/2018:

On the commodity market, WTI crude is trying to correct after the Wednesday’s slump of -5%. Despite the huge fall in inventories in the US, investors were more focused on fears that the US-China trade war threatens global demand for oil. Reports were also negative that Libya is ready to restore 700,000 output barrels per day after the last downtime. In this market environment, the positive sentiment is very fragile and susceptible to sudden collapse.

Let’s now take a look at the Crude Oil technical picture at the H4 time frame. The market has dropped below 38% Fibo at the level of 70.81 and made a local low at the level of 70.10. Currently, the price is trying to bounce higher, but so far no avail as the bulls remain quite weak this morning. The next target for bears is seen at the level of 69.39 which is the 50% Fibo retracement as well. On the other hand, the next technical resistance is seen at the level of 72.13 and only a sustained break through this level will change the bias from bearish to bullish.

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