In the first hours of March, the USD sustains growth amid weak sentiment in the equity market. AUD reacted negatively to domestic data. PMI from China surprised positively. On the commodity market, the strength of USD keeps prices in check. WTI crude cannot recover after yesterday’s $2 slump in the direction of 61.30. Similarly, Gold at USD 1,313 is hovering against three-week minimums.
On Thursday the 1st of March, the event calendar is again quite busy with important data releases, so market participants should keep an eye on Switzerland Gross Domestic Product and Retail Sales data, PMI Manufacturing data from Spain Italy and the UK, Eurozone Unemployment Rate, Canadian RBC Manufacturing PMI (s.a.) data.Personal Spending, Personal Spending, Unemployment Claims, Continuing Claims and ISM Manufacturing PMI data from the US. Moreover, at the beginning of the trading session, Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell will give a speech again.
AUD/USD analysis for 01/03/2018:
AUD is the weakest currency on Thursday under the pressure of domestic data. The Private Capital Expenditures in Australia in the fourth quarter decreased by 0.2% versus the forecast increase of 1.0%. The first estimate of investment plans for the financial year 2018/19 amounted to AUD 84 billion with a forecast of AUD 86 billion. The data release is important for traders, as it is a top indicator of Australia’s economic health. Additionally, a change in the investment levels for businesses is usually a sign for future economic movement, including earning, spending and hiring.
Let’s now take a look at the AUD/USD technical picture at the H4 time frame. The market has been trying to bounce from the key technical support zone between the levels of 0.7729 — 0.7758 but after worse than expected news, it marginally broke through the support and made a new low at the level of 0.7715. The momentum is still pointing to the downside and the market is close to entering the oversold conditions. The next technical support is seen at the level of 0.7693 and the level of 0.7758 will now act as a nearest technical resistance for the price.