Review of EUR / USD as of June 13, 2013

The dollar strengthened yesterday which was the result of incredibly good inflation data that accelerated from 2.5% to 2.8% while the growth was projected to 2.7%. In fact, inflation data lifted any doubts about today’s outcome of the meeting of the Federal Commission for Open Market Operations, and the Fed is waiting for an increase in the refinancing rate from 1.75% to 2.00%. We must admit that despite the fairly good growth in inflation, the dollar has not strengthened too much, and this is not related to the market’s expectation of the regulator’s decision. The fact is that the increase in the refinancing rate has long been taken into account in the value of the dollar, so that after the announcement of the results, serious upheavals should not be expected, and the strengthening of the dollar will be moderate.

It is important to pay special attention to statistics which will be published before the meeting of the Federal Commission for Open Market Operations. In particular, we are talking about industrial production in Europe, the growth rate of which should slow from 3.0% to 2.8%. This, naturally, does not add optimism to the euro. And shortly before the announcement of the Fed’s decision on the refinancing rate, data on producer prices in the US will be published, the growth rates of which can accelerate from 2.6% to 2.8%. This inspires confidence, if not in further inflation, then at least in its stabilization at current levels. All this will inspire investors’ confidence that the Fed will continue to raise the refinancing rate. So it is clear with what mood traders are approaching today.

Although everything indicates that the dollar will gain a little more, we should not discount the possibility that the Fed will keep the refinancing rate unchanged. Of course, the probability of such a development of events is leaning towards zero, but then the devil is not a joke. If this happens, then the dollar will instantly lose its positions, and quite strongly. After all, it means that the strengthening of the dollar, which lasted almost two months, was in vain and unfounded.

Thus, we have two scenarios. Almost certainly, the Federal Commission for Open Market Operations will raise the refinancing rate, which will lead to a reduction in the euro to 1.1700. If the Fed really surprises the market and disappoints investors, even the mark of 1.1900 does not seem to be the limit.

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