Global macro overview for 29/09/2017:
Japanese Consumer Price Index rises for eight consecutive months. According to the government agency, Japan’s core inflation accelerated in August to the level of 0.7% from 0.4% (which includes oil products but excludes volatile fresh food prices), beating the market expectations for a 0.6% increase. The Industrial Production increased as well to the level of 2.1% from -0.8% a month ago, beating the market expectations for a 1.8% increase. Prices are rising gradually. Exports are supporting output and domestic demand doesn’t look weak either. Demand for labour remains at the strongest level since 1974 with data showing the jobs-applicants ratio held steady at 1.52 in August and unemployment rate is still at the level of 2.8%
The better than expected data should bolster optimism about the outlook for growth, though Prime Minister Shinzo Abe’s decision to call a snap election raised some uncertainty over economic policy. The other concern is the recent Bank of Japan Monetary Policy Minutes report, that revealed one board member wanted an expansion of stimulus as consumer prices remain distant from the central bank’s 2.0% inflation target. The summary of the BOJ’s rate review this month did not identify who spoke or what specific measures were proposed.
Let’s now take a look at the USD/JPY technical picture on the H4 time frame. The market is still moving away from the local swing high at the level of 113.25, but the short-term trend line has not been tested yet. The next immediate support is seen at the level of 112.19 and the next technical support is seen at the level of 111.45.