Fundamental analysis of USD/CAD for September 27, 2017

USD/CAD is currently residing at the edge of 1.2410-20 resistance area from where it is expected to show upcoming directional bias in this pair. USD has been quite dominant over CAD recently which lead to further retracement after bouncing off the 1.2110 support level. Today BOC Governor Poloz is due to speak about the short-term interest rate and future monetary policy which is expected to be neutral in nature. The definite effect of the event will be considered after the daily close today. Until then the currency is expected to be quite volatile in nature. On the other hand, today the US Core Durable Goods Orders report showed a decrease to 0.2% as expected which previously was at 0.6%. The Durable Goods Orders showed a significant increase with better than expected value at 1.7% from the previous negative value of -6.8% which was expected to be at 1.0%. Meanwhile, the Pending Home Sales report showed a greater deficit at -2.6% from the previous value of -0.8% which was expected to show less deficit at -0.5% and the Crude Oil Inventories report showed negative value with a decrease to -1.8M from the previous figure of 4.6M which was expected to be at 2.9M. As of the current situation, CAD has been losing grounds against USD earlier but any positive hint on the upcoming interest rates by BOC Governor Poloz may lead to further impulsive bearish pressure in this pair towards 1.2110 or more. On the other hand, any negative hint or signal will lead to further bullish pressure in this pair.

Now let us look at the technical view. The price is currently residing at the edge of 1.2410-20 resistance area which is expected to show directional move in this pair in the coming days. As the price remains below 1.2410-20 area and with some bearish pressure, it is expected to reach 1.2110 support level in the coming days. On the other hand, if the price breaks above the 1.2410 with a daily close, then there are certain chance of price pushing up higher towards 1.2770 resistance level in the future. As the price remains below 1.2770, the bearish pressure is expected to continue further.

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