Fundamental Analysis of NZD/USD for November 9, 2017

NZD/USD has been quite indecisive today after some bullish gains recently in a long-term bearish market. USD has been dominating in the pair that pushed the price lower from the 0.7550 area to the current level of 0.6950. Recently, due to some downbeat economic reports from the US, NZD gained some momentum. But today indecisive price action is currently indicating that USD might take over again to push the price much lower in the coming days. Today, New Zealand’s regulator posted the official cash rate report with an unchanged value of 1.75% as expected that helped the currency to produce a spike along the way but the pair could not sustain the gain. Along with the Official Cash Rate report, the RBNZ released Rate Statement and Monetary Policy Statement and held a press conference where it was confirmed that the economy is developing slowly but due to unchanged wage rates, inflation and a cooling housing market the economic growth is not quite stable. RBNZ was quite hawkish with the long-term development of the economy but meanwhile NZD is expected to lose some ground. On the USD side, today Unemployment Claims report is going to be published which is expected to increase to 232k from the previous figure of 229k, Final Wholesale Inventories report is expected to be unchanged at 0.3% and Natural Gas Storage report is expected to reveal a decrease to 15B from the previous figure of 65B. As for the current scenario, if the US reports come out with positive readings today, then USD is more likely to gain momentum against NZD in the coming days.

Now let us look at the technical chart. The price is currently quite indecisive in nature and being held by the dynamic level of 20 EMA and horizontal resistance of 0.6980 area. The price has been quite corrective since it bounced off the 0.0.6900 support area. If the price remains below 0.6980 and dynamic level of 20 EMA with a daily close today, then we expect the price to move lower towards 0.6900 and later towards 0.6820 support area. As the price remains below 0.7000 resistance area with a daily close the bearish bias is expected to continue further.

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