Fundamental Analysis of EUR/AUD for June 13, 2018

EUR/AUD has been quite corrective and volatile recently after rejecting off the dynamic level with a daily close but failed to inject impulsive bearish pressure in the process to push the price lower. Though EUR has been gaining quite well against AUD recently, the long-term bearish trend is expected to take over in the coming days.

Today, the eurozone’s Employment Change report is going to be published which is expected to be unchanged at 0.3% and Industrial Production report is expected to decrease to -0.6% from the previous value of 0.5%. Though forecasts are quite dovish at the moment for EUR, certain gains against EUR can be observed ahead of the ECB Press Conference, slated for tomorrow.

On the AUD side, ahead of the Employment Change report to be published tomorrow with expectation of decrease to 18.8k from the previous figure of 22.6k and Unemployment Rate to decrease to 5.5% from the 5.6%, the currency is expected to draw certain attention from market participants in the coming days. Moreover, today Westpac Consumer Sentiment report was published with an increase to 0.3% from the previous negative value of -0.6% and RBA Governor Lowe also spoke today about upcoming economic developments and monetary policies that was quite hawkish.

As for the current scenario, AUD economic reports forecasts are quite mixed but EUR is expected to struggle amid upcoming economic reports. Moreover, the central bank’s policies could make an immediate impact. In the coming days, AUD is expected to have an upper hand over EUR.

Now let us look at the technical view. The price is currently rejecting the bulls off the dynamic level of 20 EMA as resistance residing below 1.5550 area. As for the current structure formed in the chart, the price has successfully retraced towards the mean after falling below 1.5750 earlier and expected to push lower towards 1.52 support area in the coming days. As the price remains below 1.5750 area with a daily close, the bearish bias is expected to continue.

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