Fundamental Analysis of AUD/USD for March 7, 2018

AUD/USD has been quite impulsive with the bullish gains recently inside the bearish trend which is expected to continue further after breaching below 0.7750 in the coming days. AUD found support from recent economic reports which helped the currency to gain impulsive momentum over USD. Today, Australia released a GDP report with a significant decrease to 0.4% from the previous value of 0.7% which was expected to be at 0.5%. Besides, Reserve Bank of Australia’s Governor Phillip Lowe spoke at the AFR Business Summit where he stated that investments in the real non-mining sector have revealed growth whereas Computer Software industry has been the fastest growing investment. Phillip Lowe expressed the hawkish rhetoric about investments made in Australia which is expected to have a positive impact on the AUD gains in the long term. The worse-than-expected GDP report was a bit shock for the market sentiment whereas AUD made a drastic fall after the GDP report, so AUD is likely to remain under pressure in the short term. On the other hand, the economic calendar contains a series of high impact economic reports from the US such as Non-Farm Employment Change, Unemployment Rate, and Average Hourly Earnings which are expected to show optimistic readings. Today ADP Non-Farm Employment Change report is going to be published which is expected to decrease to 199k from the previous figure of 234k, FOMC Members Bostic and Dudley are going to speak today about the nearest interest rate hike this month along with future monetary policies, investors expect to detect the hawkish stance in their comments. As for the current scenario, USD is expected to gain further momentum in the coming days as AUD has been affected by the worse-than-expected GDP report. So, with the view of the anticipated rate hike this month, USD is expected to have the upper hand over AUD and gain further in the future.

Now let us look at the technical view. The price is currently residing inside the price range of 0.7750-0.7850 area with the dynamic level of 20 EMA currently residing above the daily candle as well. The bearish bias is still quite intact in the pair, having no impulsive bullish price action to take over the recent lower high. As the price remains below 0.7850 with a daily close, the bearish bias is expected to continue further.

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