EUR/USD — The stop and consolidation is growing.
The EUR/USD rate declines, but the movement down is exhaled.
On Wednesday, new strong data on the US economy came out: Orders for durable goods grew by + 5.1% over the forecast for the year.
Excluding transport, growth is even higher + 6.1% per year.
«Capital goods», that is investments. Growth is also strong + 3.6% for the year, and a revision of the previous one with an increase to + 3.6%.
This supported the dollar, but we see a slowdown in the decline of the euro even against the background of strong data on the dollar.
It should be understood that the decline in EUR/USD from 1.2100 to 1.1750 is so far only a correction to the previous multi-month growth.
It is very likely consolidation, fluctuation of the exchange rate in some new range.
A little bit about the US economy: It’s clear, looking at the S & P500 index chart, that the main growth is already over.
However, for a reversal and a fall, a crisis in the real sector is needed.
Today at 13.30, the third reading of US GDP for the 2nd quarter.
Pay attention. Here, there is data on the average dynamics of profitability of companies (corporate profits). So, the average profit growth is + 8.1% for the year.
When the growth of the economy is exhausted, the profit levels do not grow, but fall. The profit itself is still growing, its total volume but the level of profitability is falling. While we are seeing growth.
That is, the US economy feels good and growing.
Let’s return to the fate of EUR/USD. I do not think that we have a full turn down of the pair and a further drop to 1.0500 and lower. It is more likely that the decline will reach a maximum of 50% of the correction for growth. That is, up to 1.1300 approximately.
But, probably, below 1.1660 and we will not go.