The pair continues to form a downward medium-term model. Yesterday, there was a breakdown and consolidation below the weekly KZ of 1.2956-1.2930 which allows us to consider the next reduction target.
The downward movement prevails on the instrument, so it makes no sense to look for reversal options. The most profitable tactic is searching favorable prices for selling the instrument. The first correction zone is the NKZ 1/4 1.2923-1.2917, formed from the yesterday’s low. If the pair tests the specified zone, then sales with a stop of 15-20 points are possible. The potential profit will be 120 points, which makes the short position profitable.
The most profitable prices for the selling the instrument are located within the limits of the NKZ 1/2 1.2994-1.2981. Testing this zone is unlikely in the next 24 hours, therefore this plan can be extended for 2-3 days.
To cancel the downward movement, it will require the absorption of yesterday’s decline and the closing of the US session above the opening of trading area. This will also consider the formation of a correctional flat-like movement, where there will still be initial sales from significant resistance levels. It is unprofitable to consider purchases from current marks, since the probability the reversal model formation is 30%, and the probability of the NKZ 1/2 test is 1.2802-1.2790 is 70%.
Daytime CP is the daytime control zone. The zone is formed by important data from the futures market, which change several times a year.
Weekly CP is the weekly control zone. The zone is formed by important futures market marks, which change several times a year.
Monthly CP is the monthly control zone. The zone is a reflection of the average volatility over the past year.
* The presented market analysis is informative and does not constitute a guide to the transaction.