Breaking Forecast 05.10.2017
The EURUSD rate in the last two days has sharply reduced activity — which is traditionally the case before a strong move.
There were strong news — but they were multi-directional. The US employment report from the ADP agency showed a strong decline in new jobs in September; showing a gain of 135, 000 against 228, 000 increase last month. However, the strong hurricane in the USA was taken into account.
On the contrary, the report on the ISM service index showed a growth above estimates at +59.8, the forecast is +55.5.
The market is nervous over the conflict between Spain and Catalonia. On Wednesday evening, the Catalan leader again stated that he would not retreat from the course of independence — but did not say when he plans to proclaim independence from Spain.
Catalonia called on Madrid to negotiate the recognition of independence. Madrid strongly rejected the proposal.
Earlier, the EU said that in case of a unilateral withdrawal of Catalonia from Spain — Catalonia can not become a member of the EU.
The market has stopped and is preparing for a strong move.
There are no important news on Thursday. On Friday, the important news will be nonfarm payrolls data.
Perhaps the market will wait for movement until Friday, but it is possible that it will go ahead with a direction.
Be prepared to take a position in the direction of movement, placing a breakout order, as shown in the figure below:
Buy above 1.1835
Sell below 1.1695